{"id":"W4310723876","doi":"10.31234/osf.io/d5fz2","title":"Overconfidently conspiratorial: Conspiracy believers are dispositionally overconfident and massively overestimate how much others agree with them","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Misinformation and Its Impacts","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":18,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Regina","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; Miami Foundation; John Templeton Foundation","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Intuition; Psychology; Social psychology; Perception; Narcissism; Uniqueness; Cognitive science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004119885,0.0002660998,0.0002630777,0.001226654,0.0006702694,0.001731359,0.0004190758,0.000650748,0.002946293],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02403592,0.0002959486,0.0002397436,0.0006112663,0.0025463,0.001451805,0.001334396,0.001454049,0.0002209807],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004708771,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005073371,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003572771,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004483689,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9978398,0.0006185499,0.0001819834,0.0002816543,0.0008905428,0.0001873435],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9663712,0.009884778,0.01703456,0.003010682,0.002528046,0.001170635],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001760237,0.00008782509,0.958572,0.00008405543,0.0002563843,0.0003233988,0.01161236,0.0001578115,0.003018306,0.002441601,0.0006270507,0.0226432],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000014634,0.0001236586,0.9839703,0.00009551128,0.00006293956,0.0007549795,0.008177736,0.0006730278,0.001282244,0.003523734,0.001294683,0.00002648512],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9956613,0.0001663659,0.0007507493,0.000609258,0.00001165507,0.000007343837,0.00004520428,0.000008535038,0.002739579],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992955,0.00006375515,0.0002280994,0.0001920783,0.00001269882,0.000004308415,0.00003916769,0.000001939639,0.0001623793],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.004119885,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0217883,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04503841896667007,"score_gpt":0.2987933379258616,"score_spread":0.2537549189591916,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}