{"id":"W4311495920","doi":"10.1002/fut.22390","title":"A new option for mortality–interest rates","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Futures Markets","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Hedge; Interest rate; Annuity; Life annuity; Actuarial science; Mortality rate; Longevity risk; Interest rate risk; Life insurance; Economics; Econometrics; Finance; Medicine; Internal medicine; Pension","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00316765,0.0001210654,0.0002425088,0.0002433952,0.0008068981,0.0001337579,0.0005459439,0.00004609415,0.000712401],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001874489,0.0001137367,0.0003589817,0.0003150613,0.00006812116,0.0002842162,0.00008646389,0.0002687513,0.000002128132],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001683677,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002190855,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003077793,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001011866,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9978486,0.000451953,0.0004740527,0.0001554674,0.0007624964,0.0003074022],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987846,0.0001396614,0.0005732215,0.0001619876,0.0001804376,0.0001601137],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001431507,0.0005116013,0.08309265,0.0001145286,0.0009497787,0.0001655919,0.008856167,0.0004020941,0.0002523939,0.09540345,0.7208794,0.08794083],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000877984,0.0002286694,0.3043926,0.00002406753,0.0001250273,0.00001238213,0.006794884,0.00003821795,0.0000303237,0.01564224,0.6716442,0.0001894843],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9704423,0.001545584,0.001762512,0.005103862,0.006652488,0.0006882283,0.00002901538,0.0000397647,0.01373628],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9937584,0.0003515543,0.001424157,0.0004525183,0.002035786,0.00001944874,0.000003784935,0.00001609004,0.001938192],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2212999,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7800291,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04567452775456005,"score_gpt":0.3593368681016282,"score_spread":0.3136623403470682,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}