{"id":"W4312286093","doi":"10.4236/tel.2022.125077","title":"Economic Instability in the Gulf Region: Insights from a Dual Shock","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Theoretical Economics Letters","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Shock (circulatory); Pandemic; Stock (firearms); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Economics; Political instability; Quarter (Canadian coin); Financial crisis; Dual (grammatical number); Financial market; Futures contract; China; Monetary economics; Development economics; Financial economics; Geography; Macroeconomics; Political science; Finance; Politics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001359368,0.000259828,0.0005487301,0.0001782099,0.0002717545,0.0001298854,0.0008179395,0.00008683368,0.002974985],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000734428,0.0002697778,0.0002267045,0.0001372967,0.0004983076,0.0001910292,0.0003740317,0.0006246401,0.0001239627],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007642134,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004203029,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005517996,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0003757533,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974429,0.0002387609,0.001028346,0.0008208833,0.00004068297,0.0004284128],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9980297,0.0005697413,0.0002892193,0.001010833,0.000005245603,0.00009525168],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001235264,0.0001094563,0.03610704,0.000004401324,0.00003120308,0.00001520804,0.001003814,0.001051989,0.000003899619,0.9608703,0.0005217162,0.0001573981],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008574317,0.00006040385,0.02666955,0.000002300565,0.00000692456,0.00001303231,0.0003665577,0.0912736,0.000001985666,0.8610824,0.01925432,0.0004115112],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9591074,0.0001417664,0.0005882662,0.01380563,0.00064523,0.0003843472,0.0004108989,0.00002858127,0.02488787],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9925798,0.00004156782,0.0000949889,0.006838073,0.0001800925,0.0001276443,0.00008620069,0.00003255949,0.00001912409],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.09978796,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999754,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01401457809475124,"score_gpt":0.1939669286785574,"score_spread":0.1799523505838062,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}