{"id":"W4313459458","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4311303","title":"About Earthquake Prediction","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Seismology and Earthquake Studies","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Seismology; Earthquake prediction; Geology; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001300726,0.0001039137,0.000115943,0.0001741871,0.0004720213,0.00006675125,0.0004542957,0.00006411734,0.000007081041],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00007468075,0.00009028112,0.00008398338,0.0005556677,0.00004471533,0.0003464743,0.00009942774,0.001035858,0.0006002093],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00010825,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007770979,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000008156768,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00005264705,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974612,0.00007750611,0.000182676,0.00020517,0.0002141834,0.001859254],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995368,0.00005346531,0.00006661876,0.0002070581,0.00005935051,0.00007673546],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001769127,0.00002801216,0.0105799,0.000003512443,0.0002058874,0.00003294969,0.001066427,0.0002345578,0.00004326906,0.6891692,0.004315525,0.294303],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008145371,0.0007075954,0.09441077,0.00001927245,0.00001565217,0.001587517,0.001334669,0.004418825,0.00005184158,0.8488566,0.04751963,0.0002631497],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7057954,0.005493201,0.2713391,0.009105234,0.002670801,0.0001452577,0.000002105953,0.0009689772,0.00447988],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9890814,0.0055769,0.0001956111,0.0003220957,0.0003449347,0.000005447445,0.000002307026,0.000008214985,0.004463132],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2940399,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7714677,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01005515748050865,"score_gpt":0.2289806145715956,"score_spread":0.2189254570910869,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}