{"id":"W4313855146","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/acb163","title":"The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Environmental Research Letters","topic":"Agricultural risk and resilience","field":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences","cited_by":21,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University","funders":"Army Research Laboratory; Army Research Office; Uppsala Multidisciplinary Center for Advanced Computational Science; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme; H2020 European Research Council; Riksbankens Jubileumsfond; Stiftelsen för Miljöstrategisk Forskning","keywords":"Socioeconomic status; Gross domestic product; Per capita; Pessimism; Harm; Development economics; Per capita income; Economics; Armed conflict; Economic growth; Political science; Demography; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001309106,0.0001213319,0.00009390854,0.00001804065,0.0006539504,0.0001938223,0.0009274622,0.00005312164,0.00009704351],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00002784994,0.00003205217,0.00009399172,0.0001643484,0.0005084948,0.0001609835,0.000168944,0.0003651987,0.0009940108],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001812455,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000005850482,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000230615,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001983257,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981562,0.0003494937,0.0001894489,0.0003293722,0.0003424209,0.0006329965],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986643,0.001146464,0.00003896758,0.00007656413,0.000002092257,0.00007165862],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004945289,0.00007054225,0.05151845,0.000002916963,0.00001895333,0.00004739191,0.002454538,0.00009217998,0.8334528,0.0002925575,0.06639128,0.04560896],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008465438,0.00007476969,0.9658021,0.000004404602,0.000001158362,0.000004083991,0.006777767,0.00005796076,0.003444167,0.0002273899,0.02340503,0.0001165451],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9641744,0.0001894296,1.947572e-8,0.03499223,0.00007301379,0.0003287244,0.00002827011,0.0000586177,0.0001552738],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969867,0.001976543,0.000001426757,0.0004293045,0.0002597538,0.0001038652,0.00004240277,0.000002310812,0.0001976529],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9142836,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997838,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0433140638743428,"score_gpt":0.2641592467001415,"score_spread":0.2208451828257987,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}