{"id":"W4318979360","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023","title":"Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Natural hazards and earth system sciences","topic":"Fire effects on ecosystems","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":18,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"H2020 Environment; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme; European Commission","keywords":"Mediterranean climate; Environmental science; Preparedness; Climatology; Environmental resource management; Meteorology; Geography; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[{"model":"gemma","categories":[],"domain":null,"study_design":"simulation_or_modeling","genre":"empirical","about_ca_system":false,"about_ca_topic":false,"confidence":"medium","status":"direct model label, unvalidated"},{"model":"gpt","categories":[],"domain":null,"study_design":"design_other","genre":"empirical","about_ca_system":false,"about_ca_topic":false,"confidence":"low","status":"direct model label, unvalidated"}],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005896841,0.0003005069,0.0001916329,0.0005466202,0.000170836,0.000626759,0.0003943319,0.0004266052,0.000648069],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001757845,0.0001082657,0.0002335508,0.0005349735,0.0001106196,0.0004433442,0.0003255966,0.000299191,0.0001325132],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000673905,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007395243,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05656003,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04692363,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998773,0.00003992175,0.00001421634,0.00002936207,0.00002194246,0.00001726127],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995433,0.0001674482,0.00005400509,0.000060078,0.0001269692,0.00004818315],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003235387,0.0002020666,0.2065456,0.0001330197,0.0001657337,0.001631201,0.0003539113,0.6846465,0.004907484,0.001314322,0.004437326,0.09533915],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002297527,0.00003792167,0.05264809,0.00002878822,0.00003014998,0.00006684371,0.0003798617,0.9435921,0.0009146492,0.0006432526,0.001619326,0.00001603818],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9902099,0.0001628394,0.004785593,0.0003179823,0.00003293588,0.00003948979,0.001125275,0.0001669984,0.003158974],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9953281,0.00006347291,0.003854112,0.000009794534,0.000007167002,0.000008559997,0.0004656192,0.000007436593,0.0002558054],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05656003,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1124616,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02269281018643789,"score_gpt":0.2799672942360786,"score_spread":0.2572744840496408,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}