{"id":"W4318983127","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09712-x","title":"Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the United States: The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Open Economies Review","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Inflation (cosmology); Monetary economics; Vector autoregression; Bayesian vector autoregression; Monetarism; Macroeconomics; Business cycle; Structural vector autoregression; Bayesian probability","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001893202,0.0001983289,0.0006946173,0.0003275941,0.0001645446,0.0001612512,0.001025087,0.00005760616,0.0007445195],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001315527,0.0001530764,0.000121183,0.0004785245,0.0001599479,0.0004343413,0.0002990085,0.000175618,0.001024539],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007838501,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002641936,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01392866,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006389174,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9980964,0.00008383385,0.00108177,0.0003576066,0.00001567163,0.0003647078],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984911,0.0003254975,0.0004340159,0.0006820475,0.000004966491,0.00006234088],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009566854,0.0002484244,0.2641192,0.00175282,0.0007901153,0.00000873452,0.01293325,0.02664744,0.0000039006,0.5331243,0.1046356,0.05564047],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004998742,0.00005809791,0.129455,0.0001920444,0.00002275281,0.00001671847,0.001051815,0.03442061,0.000004582388,0.09721095,0.736744,0.0003235411],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8591378,0.05041908,0.000007695997,0.04224524,0.0001240699,0.002075887,0.0009993913,0.00002525349,0.04496558],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7830592,0.2066423,0.00005129694,0.008709379,0.00009991235,0.0002315367,0.0003380042,0.00002957263,0.0008387404],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6321084,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997533,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06446843703619509,"score_gpt":0.2854286662946817,"score_spread":0.2209602292584866,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}