{"id":"W4319773767","doi":"10.1017/s136510052200075x","title":"IMF lending in sovereign default","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"","keywords":"Negotiation; Default; Sovereign default; Debt; Forgiveness; Economics; Monetary economics; Creditor; Sovereignty; International economics; Financial system; Sovereign debt; Macroeconomics; Finance; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005025369,0.0001917925,0.0004463624,0.000475129,0.0001014578,0.00009758151,0.0003292322,0.0001329874,0.0002726339],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00006315566,0.0002565871,0.0001403882,0.0004514045,0.00005709678,0.0002156953,0.0001431401,0.0001716804,0.006715696],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004902454,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002217696,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001422249,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001163346,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982489,0.000009521827,0.0006993183,0.0004251124,0.00002096775,0.000596212],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999337,0.0000484636,0.000205221,0.00032427,0.000009371438,0.00007563926],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000007080856,0.0000179212,0.1058105,0.00001584194,0.00001205932,0.000009731233,0.0002207169,0.001883986,0.000003656454,0.887931,0.002786374,0.001301117],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001057283,0.00005527021,0.2495848,0.00002887117,0.000004583879,0.0000105351,0.0006328491,0.1612792,0.00001940844,0.4909295,0.0955814,0.0008162102],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8391726,0.0002564133,0.000216214,0.0008554918,0.0008722921,0.0001594137,0.0005808914,0.000125044,0.1577616],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9965442,0.0002882357,0.0001132893,0.0003548813,0.0001115317,0.00002516684,0.00008986326,0.00003849954,0.00243431],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3970014,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999886,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02102879644353944,"score_gpt":0.2360703232350409,"score_spread":0.2150415267915015,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}