{"id":"W4321376826","doi":"10.31234/osf.io/h9ypd","title":"Two kinds of counterfactual closeness","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Deception detection and forensic psychology","field":"Psychology","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Counterfactual thinking; Closeness; Disappointment; Surprise; Odds; Counterfactual conditional; Social psychology; Psychology; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01394377,0.0005158566,0.000588542,0.00204676,0.001118204,0.002851901,0.0007913705,0.001201569,0.005021965],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1157916,0.0004850552,0.0007495196,0.001472122,0.003823811,0.004654686,0.005194902,0.002327198,0.000342172],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000761677,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003282389,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004515404,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004865491,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9778347,0.01346958,0.00244509,0.002598375,0.003212742,0.0004395158],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8851578,0.07918125,0.01509716,0.01464933,0.004686576,0.001227881],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00607893,0.000646343,0.2106573,0.004564533,0.0018324,0.001982732,0.1524742,0.008665612,0.04353342,0.3114519,0.004977978,0.2531346],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003399092,0.001594977,0.4677956,0.001093633,0.0007572803,0.005931472,0.04715414,0.01759196,0.01938911,0.3880863,0.04921831,0.001047374],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7916337,0.003242759,0.1663388,0.001685233,0.0003464085,0.0005499818,0.001076299,0.0002518099,0.03487506],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9812109,0.0003169768,0.01654354,0.0003083654,0.00004075316,0.0003482272,0.0004898141,0.00003401668,0.000707417],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01394377,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07374257,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1087874015035573,"score_gpt":0.4185600365465683,"score_spread":0.3097726350430109,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}