{"id":"W4321493319","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu23-497","title":"Narrowing uncertainties in projected warming by constraining using the past global warming trend with the pattern effect removed","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Victoria","funders":"","keywords":"Climatology; Environmental science; Constraint (computer-aided design); Global warming; Climate model; Coupled model intercomparison project; Projection (relational algebra); Scale (ratio); Meteorology; Computer science; Atmospheric sciences; Climate change; Mathematics; Geography; Physics; Geology; Algorithm","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003294586,0.00074258,0.0005873787,0.0009880866,0.0004453441,0.001692225,0.0007910696,0.0005977597,0.003039618],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01612015,0.0005422953,0.001027821,0.001782781,0.0004940011,0.001922563,0.00144252,0.001112101,0.0004038579],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003610259,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00111029,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.008187445,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01229472,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989299,0.0003665444,0.00008720069,0.0004081561,0.000165171,0.0000430226],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9942947,0.00295672,0.0006979706,0.001487166,0.000435227,0.0001281371],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002670816,0.0001294721,0.07823583,0.0003162255,0.0009891336,0.0001579387,0.0002939823,0.7639808,0.006356556,0.0182765,0.002740044,0.1282564],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008857092,0.0000862169,0.06155514,0.0002027561,0.0002394366,0.000122935,0.0001734962,0.8650451,0.007371808,0.05222661,0.0127457,0.0001421452],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3485164,0.000494384,0.633813,0.0007276218,0.0001709898,0.00006585453,0.004958811,0.0009938688,0.01025904],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8672202,0.0002839779,0.1269533,0.0001674371,0.00009072905,0.00009908139,0.00400114,0.0004397419,0.0007443326],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.008187445,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01742363,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03863896377962482,"score_gpt":0.27926544257851,"score_spread":0.2406264787988852,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}