{"id":"W4321497531","doi":"10.3390/jrfm16030144","title":"Geopolitical Risks and Yield Dynamics in the Australian Sovereign Bond Market","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":23,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Geopolitics; Sovereignty; Bond; Yield (engineering); Financial crisis; Economics; Credit risk; Monetary economics; Yield curve; Terrorism; Financial economics; Macroeconomics; Political science; Finance; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002276019,0.0001102957,0.0002806455,0.0002790232,0.00009945605,0.00008675537,0.0001641249,0.00007566446,0.00004994294],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002089689,0.00009335604,0.00007546937,0.0002742049,0.00006516452,0.0001094232,0.00008927853,0.0003004148,0.000005014621],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005818849,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000007430634,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003010741,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00025216,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989306,0.00002846895,0.0005538745,0.0001723366,0.00006484691,0.0002498234],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993538,0.0001604381,0.00025719,0.0001488315,0.00001592738,0.00006385663],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005895382,0.00004714225,0.4676681,0.00005151165,0.00001370121,0.00007021888,0.0001970507,0.000004464107,2.266065e-8,0.5136318,0.003247398,0.01500956],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000350096,0.00005694904,0.6976897,0.00002092623,0.00001331792,0.000008698521,0.000479418,0.00848865,5.663178e-8,0.2763659,0.01643796,0.00008824952],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9500368,0.0004292739,0.002201681,0.0009491318,0.0003483571,0.0002112255,0.0001639033,0.000007370505,0.0456523],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9953799,0.003660674,0.0002563816,0.0001256323,0.00008994483,0.000003619347,0.000002239823,0.000007120361,0.0004745218],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2372659,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3806949,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03092041356953234,"score_gpt":0.2418175053107736,"score_spread":0.2108970917412413,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}