{"id":"W4322210498","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14067","title":"Automatic and Open-Source Model with Forecasts for Climate Policy and Economics","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Climate Change Policy and Economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Victoria","funders":"","keywords":"Computer science; Econometrics; Outlier; Aggregate (composite); Modular design; Economic model; Model selection; Source code; Climate model; Estimation; Policy analysis; Climate change; Operations research; Economics; Macroeconomics; Artificial intelligence","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001268376,0.001110307,0.0009200808,0.0008452277,0.0004719732,0.001785599,0.003232747,0.001997817,0.04680186],"category_scores_gemma":[0.008325308,0.0007691695,0.002122908,0.001395209,0.0005101808,0.001940793,0.001736509,0.002248236,0.02843663],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008013814,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002526378,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01555001,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01384528,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994205,0.0001527076,0.00004805013,0.0001497664,0.0001653336,0.00006370217],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9974527,0.001206957,0.0001760528,0.0004508696,0.0005859992,0.0001274441],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002849453,0.000168373,0.004708357,0.0005974221,0.000258257,0.0002134481,0.0001856818,0.6186435,0.001377973,0.04239046,0.2710578,0.06011379],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000144937,0.00002438103,0.0009211937,0.00006032257,0.0000441801,0.00006726158,0.00002153211,0.8477352,0.001091186,0.03299373,0.1168396,0.00005646013],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.01444332,0.0007594795,0.7202334,0.001706948,0.001090902,0.0003750575,0.1092639,0.1159499,0.03617707],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.1871313,0.001272075,0.5569944,0.0009645761,0.0005110175,0.002144953,0.1848743,0.0291103,0.03699711],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04680186,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1565678,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2152815804862762,"score_gpt":0.3055133132563597,"score_spread":0.09023173277008345,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}