{"id":"W4323924247","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104424","title":"Biased expectations","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"European Economic Review","topic":"Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Wilfrid Laurier University","funders":"","keywords":"Optimism; Ex-ante; Optimism bias; Economics; Consumption (sociology); Microeconomics; Macroeconomics; Psychology; Social psychology; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006282256,0.0004825568,0.0006782212,0.001511368,0.0007378584,0.003822139,0.0007618662,0.001880119,0.04708471],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05544807,0.000289742,0.0004064146,0.001149998,0.00165416,0.003333761,0.001397341,0.00226895,0.011536],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002019507,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001296868,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00201225,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001341378,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9950057,0.001737847,0.0002378096,0.0006529679,0.001890011,0.0004757415],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9802415,0.009848986,0.002292395,0.002619199,0.004208867,0.0007890554],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002955695,0.00006284558,0.007588361,0.0002773139,0.00007491107,0.0002229757,0.0007261499,0.001613328,0.0004208955,0.715767,0.123697,0.1492536],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00006747047,0.000070604,0.01134777,0.0003407023,0.00004388324,0.0003941048,0.0005642777,0.003323511,0.0006803523,0.8284146,0.1547165,0.00003623453],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.05440683,0.01504242,0.0548051,0.07744545,0.00421489,0.0001317116,0.002842501,0.000467978,0.7906433],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8806034,0.007580875,0.005015118,0.01786803,0.003194235,0.0001731681,0.002072169,0.0002843653,0.08320873],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.04708471,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1575141,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03648096418051362,"score_gpt":0.2556690297127619,"score_spread":0.2191880655322483,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}