{"id":"W4324123643","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4386770","title":"Short and Variable Lags","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":21,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Trough (economics); Economics; Quarter (Canadian coin); Consumption (sociology); Variable (mathematics); Monetary economics; Econometrics; Demographic economics; Macroeconomics; Mathematics; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002732202,0.0007660555,0.0007224022,0.001569242,0.0006625289,0.003794531,0.0009483334,0.001190128,0.04889606],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01704464,0.00043333,0.0009891617,0.003142032,0.0008840507,0.004159111,0.001460814,0.002602069,0.007398558],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006960774,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001091295,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00394736,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004551313,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998607,0.0001793135,0.0001276629,0.0004546469,0.000294632,0.0003368934],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.986311,0.008328656,0.001763425,0.002047809,0.0009089805,0.0006401698],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001892772,0.0005285052,0.2439157,0.001042761,0.0009257818,0.002835273,0.001241571,0.08003528,0.006314936,0.3167187,0.09978791,0.2447608],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001990133,0.0005897103,0.4110414,0.0003990933,0.0008011551,0.001209979,0.001593124,0.123978,0.0110231,0.3303863,0.1184307,0.0003484716],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6780972,0.01615178,0.1157171,0.01046929,0.006205112,0.0001385399,0.04913124,0.003094112,0.1209957],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.928791,0.001678708,0.003617755,0.0004281076,0.0005790029,0.00003448516,0.01311623,0.000332187,0.05142262],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04889606,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1635736,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03893957892827467,"score_gpt":0.2190219457537784,"score_spread":0.1800823668255038,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}