{"id":"W4324357327","doi":"10.47611/jsrhs.v11i3.3508","title":"Election Forecasting Using Macroeconomic and Social Indicators via Machine Learning","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Student Research","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Naive Bayes classifier; Machine learning; Artificial intelligence; Turnout; Unemployment; Democracy; Computer science; Econometrics; Political science; Support vector machine; Economics; Economic growth; Voting; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001921712,0.0005049808,0.0005976631,0.004593493,0.0003567832,0.00122534,0.0004087484,0.0005746512,0.001736947],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006082081,0.0001842439,0.0006184953,0.003765446,0.0001790307,0.000999069,0.000460221,0.0008733178,0.0008172671],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001151579,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006974912,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01828545,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01975428,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993338,0.0002555102,0.0000429608,0.0001156775,0.0001613262,0.00009073335],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9968807,0.001723634,0.0004960308,0.0002354047,0.0005385755,0.0001256796],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003666857,0.000569824,0.5403166,0.0001429349,0.0002982109,0.0001192754,0.000130778,0.2975525,0.0005852801,0.004511559,0.01376125,0.1416452],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001041938,0.00007294168,0.1015824,0.00002753211,0.00002789036,0.00001884097,0.0001428257,0.8930742,0.000576783,0.001926068,0.002520112,0.00001998739],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9479992,0.0009669294,0.02527537,0.001214351,0.0001403368,0.000121018,0.01314677,0.0006999341,0.0104361],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9775032,0.0003313099,0.008935161,0.00002600057,0.00007986194,0.00004263696,0.01188118,0.00001583599,0.001184874],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01828545,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03635806,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2691970191303659,"score_gpt":0.500272385929717,"score_spread":0.2310753667993511,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}