{"id":"W4353055654","doi":"10.3138/cjpe.75428","title":"Causal Claims in Contribution Analysis","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation","topic":"Evaluation and Performance Assessment","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Counterfactual thinking; Causality (physics); Causation; Relevance (law); Epistemology; Causal analysis; Counterfactual conditional; Generative grammar; Probabilistic logic; Computer science; Positive economics; Psychology; Sociology; Econometrics; Philosophy; Artificial intelligence; Economics; Political science; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.02624064,0.00008046794,0.0002693844,0.003262282,0.0001225255,0.0002906956,0.0003151753,0.00007741166,0.001689979],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002684498,0.0000669835,0.0001681369,0.006789818,0.00005001463,0.0005031266,0.000008600842,0.0001758595,0.0002482496],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005000001,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003260857,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007143109,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.127453,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9958046,0.0006235373,0.0009811239,0.0001716958,0.00212096,0.0002980918],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9961322,0.0002766512,0.0004912705,0.0002187353,0.002548346,0.0003327869],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001415789,0.000024405,0.4086214,0.000001207893,0.00009387408,0.00002128977,0.0007356543,0.04479098,0.00003073564,0.0009353809,0.003219042,0.5415118],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006366847,0.0001415084,0.6970087,0.00001009976,0.000157484,0.000005241214,0.0005071957,0.277879,0.00002400923,0.01181173,0.01174518,0.00007311533],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9936932,0.0001236522,0.001082214,0.003255388,0.0006318717,0.000596357,0.000008983438,0.00001215222,0.0005961534],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992996,0.00001098674,0.0002776369,0.00008889131,0.00009570678,0.00004255548,0.00005434484,0.000004355501,0.00012592],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5414388,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9992226,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4173134303158473,"score_gpt":0.5774615920977317,"score_spread":0.1601481617818845,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}