{"id":"W4364382481","doi":"10.18280/ijsdp.180324","title":"The Effect of Calendar Variation and Sun-Earth Distance on Daily Case Forecasting for COVID-19 Using the Symbolic Time Series Prognosis Model","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning","topic":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Universitas Brawijaya","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Series (stratigraphy); Time series; Variation (astronomy); Meteorology; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Econometrics; Computer science; Environmental science; Statistics; Geography; Mathematics; Geology; Outbreak; Virology; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003489181,0.000543043,0.0005799303,0.001103712,0.0003029916,0.001209409,0.0005938188,0.0005261866,0.001805832],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01223005,0.0001865551,0.0006312507,0.0009970972,0.0002596534,0.001034888,0.0005796747,0.0008533632,0.000313274],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008537967,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009947271,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02716175,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01386061,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992505,0.0002638928,0.00007030952,0.0001525595,0.0001532333,0.0001095675],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.993183,0.00512957,0.0007149344,0.0002415079,0.0004951237,0.0002358936],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005184765,0.0001869496,0.3171538,0.00009799647,0.0002027659,0.0004456369,0.0002279498,0.6053428,0.0009358522,0.00208447,0.001367834,0.07143533],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000005416328,0.00007583862,0.02274968,0.00001556798,0.00002879407,0.00004403811,0.00009282643,0.9759257,0.0002656061,0.0005907223,0.000191773,0.00001402881],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9668133,0.0004626595,0.02870634,0.0006126043,0.00009597834,0.00004059656,0.0007579725,0.0002202124,0.002290229],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9968721,0.0001302489,0.002214623,0.0000150253,0.00001346677,0.00001085375,0.0004307598,0.00000637876,0.0003065391],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02716175,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05400729,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05273338458495905,"score_gpt":0.2915980041166871,"score_spread":0.2388646195317281,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}