{"id":"W4365145448","doi":"10.1007/s00199-023-01496-y","title":"Stochastic disease spreading and containment policies under state-dependent probabilities","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economic Theory","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Acadia University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Università di Pisa","keywords":"Realization (probability); Econometrics; Disease; Outcome (game theory); Probability distribution; Invariant (physics); Stochastic process; Statistics; Mathematics; Medicine; Mathematical economics; Pathology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002674673,0.0005549227,0.0009070803,0.0007405832,0.0005813099,0.001719009,0.001026723,0.001686164,0.003233122],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01405592,0.0003644929,0.0006840455,0.0005151232,0.002116419,0.001778757,0.001200187,0.001314215,0.0002092932],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002113258,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00107589,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002980888,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001675443,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998551,0.0007829497,0.00004607107,0.0001706052,0.0001728948,0.000276534],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9902762,0.006559044,0.001886968,0.0004269374,0.0004618364,0.0003890417],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009706544,0.0001072122,0.001939586,0.00005780024,0.00004844161,0.0001567883,0.0001454061,0.4308932,0.001910432,0.5572651,0.0006280688,0.006750863],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004097371,0.00008046666,0.001082719,0.00001642188,0.000029607,0.0000450419,0.00008039495,0.7992108,0.0004210089,0.1984789,0.0004931318,0.00002044911],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4474779,0.0005421994,0.5295183,0.00387732,0.0001049504,0.0000844201,0.0001670723,0.0001392723,0.01808859],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9903823,0.0002762883,0.006177413,0.00009551116,0.00006213276,0.00004863721,0.0000299602,0.000009579519,0.002918334],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.003233122,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01533282,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1320823049760955,"score_gpt":0.3757629885855515,"score_spread":0.243680683609456,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}