{"id":"W4365145448","doi":"10.1007/s00199-023-01496-y","title":"Stochastic disease spreading and containment policies under state-dependent probabilities","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economic Theory","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Acadia University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Università di Pisa","keywords":"Realization (probability); Econometrics; Disease; Outcome (game theory); Probability distribution; Invariant (physics); Stochastic process; Statistics; Mathematics; Medicine; Mathematical economics; Pathology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001329271,0.0001749984,0.0003306953,0.00006402648,0.0001500499,0.00003436265,0.0001208461,0.00003195443,0.0001518894],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001456065,0.000142069,0.00006502901,0.00002762864,0.0002425253,0.00006574061,0.0003148125,0.00008404397,0.0001867507],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003491146,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004257381,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00007807449,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00008389066,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987832,0.000178799,0.0003242309,0.0003149456,0.0000579814,0.0003408341],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9936189,0.005897149,0.00009746516,0.0002461631,0.00000897928,0.000131319],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009985458,0.00002698536,0.00385861,0.0001172207,0.0001074385,0.000004106074,0.001869272,0.004624782,0.00001637877,0.9876779,0.001041155,0.0005562488],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002478794,0.00003124478,0.01653946,0.0000272469,0.00002996411,8.210115e-7,0.002295464,0.0005989238,0.00001194277,0.9798924,0.0001553673,0.0001692677],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9930243,0.0002385844,0.00343863,0.001842099,0.0001519762,0.0004454501,0.00007271624,0.0002894554,0.0004968202],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969319,0.0000718632,0.00006904119,0.0004322846,0.00007098878,0.0001121212,0.000002629948,0.00002272942,0.00228646],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01268085,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5793406,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1320823049760955,"score_gpt":0.3757629885855515,"score_spread":0.243680683609456,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}