{"id":"W4366425793","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4413799","title":"U.S. Bank Fragility to Credit Risk in 2023: Monetary Tightening and Commercial Real Estate Distress","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Housing Market and Economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Fragility; Real estate; Financial system; Business; Distress; Economics; Monetary economics; Finance; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003051648,0.0001697134,0.0003861715,0.0003762503,0.0002399887,0.0001146347,0.0002309476,0.00009927398,0.00005349482],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001152281,0.0002019543,0.00008450318,0.0003587667,0.0000432061,0.0002440522,0.0001020901,0.001234332,0.0002452914],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005980413,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001431108,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004168552,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01224614,"domain_scores_codex":[0.997308,0.00004624475,0.0006035878,0.0003592279,0.00003808055,0.001644889],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993244,0.00008319366,0.0002373326,0.0001930043,0.00001449351,0.0001475528],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001533078,0.00004810484,0.7471709,0.00001228859,0.00008779414,0.00001922388,0.000893292,0.001137966,0.000004470853,0.009118123,0.0006113832,0.2407432],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001192901,0.000189412,0.7624263,0.00002095886,0.0000136841,0.00004132567,0.0006847389,0.009323468,0.000003531668,0.2143249,0.01128469,0.0004940645],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9853134,0.0003598387,0.0004926575,0.0007692938,0.0004411367,0.0001063072,0.00008525531,0.00003596346,0.01239614],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9340894,0.0650731,0.00009415771,0.00003900069,0.0003071938,0.00000656503,0.00002355188,0.00002876615,0.0003382933],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2402491,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8235459,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01362869280716124,"score_gpt":0.2170911943244387,"score_spread":0.2034625015172774,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}