{"id":"W4367189041","doi":"10.1002/ecy.4061","title":"Estimating phenology and phenological shifts with hierarchical modeling","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Ecology","topic":"Species Distribution and Climate Change","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"California Department of Fish and Wildlife; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife; Washington State University","keywords":"Phenology; Climate change; Ecology; Range (aeronautics); Environmental science; Climatology; Biology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00357148,0.0006536103,0.0007153295,0.001331565,0.0006973905,0.0009972787,0.001709998,0.0007760848,0.001786326],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007823806,0.0006189529,0.001850168,0.001824611,0.0005729167,0.001059869,0.001363948,0.001297095,0.000469201],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001936575,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001941931,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06884586,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1116037,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985078,0.0005917748,0.00008518668,0.0005134215,0.0001708,0.0001309932],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9956601,0.002767134,0.0006127338,0.000523007,0.0002846459,0.0001523482],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009572524,0.0001060762,0.04876924,0.0001491061,0.0004302953,0.00006651194,0.0003943223,0.8737372,0.003321558,0.01475077,0.001963088,0.05621596],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000008634691,0.00002584736,0.008661505,0.00001241745,0.00004974849,0.00001852438,0.00003374753,0.9769942,0.0003487623,0.01239866,0.001426284,0.00002163346],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1069099,0.0003045892,0.8876294,0.0002543235,0.00002876751,0.0001041902,0.002227674,0.001381501,0.001159632],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.6307072,0.0002879011,0.3624779,0.0001623535,0.00004712879,0.0003800916,0.003272099,0.0003265228,0.002338789],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.06884586,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03748194779067664,"score_gpt":0.2606140495055879,"score_spread":0.2231321017149112,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}