{"id":"W4367298855","doi":"10.3390/math11092077","title":"Climate Risks and Forecasting Stock Market Returns in Advanced Economies over a Century","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Mathematics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":15,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Financial economics; Stock (firearms); Volatility (finance); Stock market; Predictive power; Econometrics; Climate risk; Climate change; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001163532,0.0004986925,0.0004734478,0.001538406,0.0002243224,0.001228473,0.0003158703,0.0006309583,0.000875504],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005878087,0.0001813977,0.000492283,0.001453012,0.000435302,0.00146474,0.0007142434,0.0008381947,0.0002318864],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004043072,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002543195,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01095175,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01121322,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997755,0.00005309984,0.00001819601,0.00005867709,0.00005804178,0.00003651915],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977919,0.0006941875,0.001032582,0.00013121,0.0001969149,0.0001532569],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001189922,0.00008234128,0.8790801,0.00003830057,0.0003331138,0.0002757226,0.0001577271,0.09623986,0.0006990749,0.004566929,0.0009119448,0.01749588],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002044655,0.00009416658,0.6080787,0.00004870993,0.00009492098,0.0001120458,0.0002290383,0.3768768,0.000815616,0.01078147,0.002793949,0.00005420947],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9908028,0.0009788715,0.00593073,0.0005282912,0.00002904225,0.000007532494,0.0005296242,0.00003756318,0.001155606],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9981597,0.0004270959,0.0006634158,0.00003229147,0.00004751761,0.000003144959,0.0004524705,0.000004281743,0.0002101498],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01095175,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02177602,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06638269905038688,"score_gpt":0.2632167591401465,"score_spread":0.1968340600897596,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}