{"id":"W4379911907","doi":"10.54254/2754-1169/5/20220097","title":"Prediction and Analysis of Financial Crisis","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Advances in Economics Management and Political Sciences","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Computer science; Financial crisis; Logistic regression; Econometrics; Machine learning; Data mining; Finance; Artificial intelligence; Economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001162857,0.000643843,0.0004606573,0.002201919,0.0002163406,0.0009543851,0.0004028082,0.0005541677,0.001849234],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005107845,0.0001343389,0.000438221,0.001335899,0.0001725786,0.0007929595,0.0005282981,0.000663025,0.0005791178],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004382191,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000452024,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00675594,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003611316,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996299,0.0001215611,0.00003291522,0.00007510458,0.00008713672,0.00005346923],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998628,0.0006920744,0.0002590839,0.0000666647,0.0002862103,0.00006802806],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005428183,0.0003290934,0.2873605,0.0003198696,0.0002571127,0.000691161,0.0002710846,0.4163812,0.002170648,0.005986735,0.0174411,0.2682486],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000007199088,0.00004522493,0.02818368,0.00002490952,0.00002158603,0.00006418252,0.0001149461,0.9672696,0.0006860766,0.002639837,0.0009305599,0.0000121332],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8697083,0.002978072,0.1086866,0.002141263,0.0002131137,0.0001728599,0.005704697,0.001246025,0.009148993],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.987916,0.0005461826,0.008759226,0.00003566567,0.00004756165,0.00004366363,0.001871643,0.00001487714,0.0007651059],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.00675594,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01343328,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02461594272012781,"score_gpt":0.2458947651500769,"score_spread":0.221278822429949,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}