{"id":"W4380362703","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681","title":"Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Global Environmental Change","topic":"Land Use and Ecosystem Services","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":92,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Memorial University of Newfoundland; University of British Columbia; Fisheries and Oceans Canada","funders":"Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving; Natural Environment Research Council; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Deutsches Zentrum für integrative Biodiversitätsforschung Halle-Jena-Leipzig; Vetenskapsrådet; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers; Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; National Research Foundation; Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas; U.S. Geological Survey; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Sight Research UK; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; Biodiversa+; European Commission; Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency","keywords":"Futures contract; Management science; Value (mathematics); Heuristic; Frontier; Futures studies; Sociology; Diversity (politics); Environmental resource management; Computer science; Knowledge management; Engineering; Business; Political science; Economics; Artificial intelligence","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001144634,0.0001842829,0.0001561014,0.00001817094,0.0003433252,0.00003541715,0.0001818046,0.0002048551,0.0004137194],"category_scores_gemma":[9.286736e-7,0.0001533685,0.00007077094,0.0001560343,0.0000245266,0.0002755898,0.0003588994,0.0001161378,0.0005739452],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001393537,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000001340281,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004285296,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006092598,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988828,0.00002026451,0.0001015688,0.0003955699,0.0002389781,0.000360781],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996592,0.00000990705,0.00004381932,0.000158744,8.737701e-7,0.0001274263],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000176665,0.0001407584,0.9380127,0.0002078114,0.00009391676,0.00005411062,0.003945326,0.0009651836,0.0002249485,0.00007428139,0.02797291,0.02813139],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001148672,0.0001519993,0.8619968,0.00001978154,0.00008597955,0.00003690205,0.002668836,0.02251387,0.0001143278,0.001044328,0.1095685,0.000649978],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9954773,0.000419809,0.00004419673,0.001932881,0.0004701822,0.0003935615,0.0008946608,0.00008041663,0.0002870169],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9970814,0.0005093876,0.0002582713,0.001324326,0.0005192409,0.00005502146,0.0002256698,0.000008300084,0.00001838436],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.08159558,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7377096,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01455878240400924,"score_gpt":0.2095402186936317,"score_spread":0.1949814362896224,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}