{"id":"W4381332466","doi":"10.1038/s42005-023-01265-2","title":"Intrinsic randomness in epidemic modelling beyond statistical uncertainty","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Communications Physics","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership; Novo Nordisk Fonden; Danmarks Grundforskningsfond; Medical Research Council; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Novo Nordisk; European Commission; Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; National Research Foundation; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council; National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit; Wellcome Trust","keywords":"Randomness; Statistical physics; Econometrics; Mathematical economics; Computer science; Statistics; Mathematics; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001550255,0.0001793041,0.000542258,0.00007663818,0.0002846455,0.00001779906,0.0008866785,0.00008183998,0.00001259052],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004659361,0.0001594947,0.00009044944,0.0009486326,0.000328598,0.00008347824,0.0009525649,0.0004783995,0.00015339],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001513565,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005366875,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002223379,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001432166,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979869,0.0006053766,0.0006108191,0.0002683176,0.000164179,0.0003644395],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.975764,0.02231359,0.0001438295,0.001604097,0.0001110065,0.00006346827],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000030173,0.0002030967,0.002637542,0.00007319511,0.00004184679,0.000002553038,0.0007633587,0.03817466,0.00001630511,0.9399683,0.004484981,0.013604],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004891224,0.000009244681,0.0007559917,0.00003497331,0.00002074441,2.644102e-7,0.0001313683,0.282095,0.000003659145,0.7142833,0.002040463,0.0001358597],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1210387,0.0008212178,0.8576539,0.01201546,0.0001860617,0.001441634,0.0001906313,0.001051997,0.005600473],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9627484,0.001367892,0.03494145,0.0003770335,0.00006196326,0.0002722067,0.0001195488,0.00002831465,0.0000831731],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.8417097,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6504005,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4513369670183576,"score_gpt":0.4784592663796266,"score_spread":0.02712229936126903,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}