{"id":"W4381799391","doi":"10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6","title":"Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Lancet","topic":"Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins","field":"Medicine","cited_by":4238,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership; National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health; Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney; Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Russian Academy of Sciences; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia; National Health and Medical Research Council; Medical Research Council; Penn State College of Medicine; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme; Novartis Pharma; University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences; National Science and Technology Council; National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition; NIHR Sheffield Biomedical Research Centre; Alfaisal University; Laboratório Associado para a Química Verde; Western Sydney University; Mahatma Gandhi University; Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa; National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis; University of Asia Pacific; Uniwersytet Śląski w Katowicach; Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University; Lingnan University; Aja University of Medical Sciences; Universitas Gadjah Mada; Lorestan University of Medical Sciences; Alborz University of Medical Sciences; Xuzhou Medical University; Swedish Orphan Biovitrum; Rajarata University of Sri Lanka; ICAR-Indian Veterinary Research Institute; Australian Research Council; Masarykova Univerzita; Śląski Uniwersytet Medyczny w Katowicach; Hawassa University; National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry; International Medical University; University of Zanjan; The Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance; Nanjing University; National Nutrition and Food Technology Research Institute; Ilam University; Universidad de La Sabana; Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences; Universitatea de Medicină şi Farmacie \"Carol Davila\" Bucureşti; University of California, Los Angeles; China Medical University; Tarbiat Modares University; Yasuj University of Medical Sciences; Umm Al-Qura University; Universidad de la República Uruguay; Dipartimento di Medicina Sperimentale e Clinica, Università degli Studi di Firenze; Bahir Dar University; Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences; Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Monash University; Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale; Guilan University of Medical Sciences; Universitair Medisch Centrum Groningen; Zanjan University of Medical Sciences; University of Gondar; United Arab Emirates University; Jazan University; Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences; Social Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province; Università di Bologna; Taibah University; Asia University; Central University of Kerala; Astellas Pharma; Shiraz University; King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Shahrekord University; National Institute on Aging; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Zhejiang University; University of California, San Diego; Hamadan University of Medical Sciences; Universitetet i Bergen; Ministarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog Razvoja; China Scholarship Council; University College London; Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia; Kuwait University; Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Tabriz University of Medical Sciences; Shiraz University of Medical Sciences; University of Cape Town; Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research; University of Wollongong; King Abdulaziz University; Office of the Secretary of Transportation; Karolinska Institutet; Isfahan University of Medical Sciences; Nanyang Technological University; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais; Haramaya University; Ministry of Health and Medical Education; National Research Foundation of Korea; Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico; Lilly Deutschland; Imperial College London; University of Toronto; Ministero della Salute; Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; Government of Jiangsu Province; Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine; Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Faculdade de Medicina do ABC; National Natural Science Foundation of China; James Cook University; Debre Tabor University; Universiteit Utrecht; Flinders University; Washington University in St. Louis; Mount Sinai Health System; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; Ilam University of Medical Sciences; Shandong University; Universidad de Chile; Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India; Capital Medical University; La Trobe University; Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit; Public Health Foundation of India; Semnan University of Medical Sciences and Health Services; Tehran Heart Center; Fresenius Medical Care North America; Australian Catholic University; Sydney Medical School; Newcastle University; Indian Council of Medical Research; University of Canberra; American University of Sharjah; Cancer Institute NSW; Universitas Padjadjaran; Mashhad University of Medical Sciences; Massachusetts General Hospital; Korean Diabetes Association; Indian Council of Agricultural Research; Dongguk University; British Heart Foundation; Università di Catania; National Research Foundation; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Salahaddin University-Erbil; University of Rochester; Arizona State University; Macquarie University; Madras Diabetes Research Foundation; JSS Academy of Higher Education and Research; Kasturba Medical College, Manipal; Krishna Institute Of Medical Sciences Deemed To Be University; Umeå Universitet; Universitätsklinikum Essen; Alexandria University; McGill University; University of Kufa; Madda Walabu University; Kerman University of Medical Sciences; Public Health Agency of Canada; Høgskulen på Vestlandet; Fujita Health University; Aksum University; Health Research Council of New Zealand; Pennsylvania State University; Universität Basel; Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum; Amicus Therapeutics; Queen's University; Iran University of Medical Sciences; Academy of Scientific Research and Technology; American Diabetes Association; National Defense Medical College; Amarin Corporation; Amgen; Sanofi; University of Oxford; Wellcome Trust; Chandigarh University; Shaqra University; Jimma University; Yale University; Lebanese American University; Trường Đại học Duy Tân; Johns Hopkins University; McMaster University; Deakin University; Novo Nordisk; Directorate for Biological Sciences; Saveetha Dental College; University of Waterloo; Brody School of Medicine; Novo Nordisk Pharma; University of Health and Allied Sciences; National Institute of Biomedical Innovation; Marga und Walter Boll-Stiftung; Nanjing University of Science and Technology; Public Health Agency; Eli Lilly and Company; Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Tokyo Medical and Dental University; Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services; University of Technology Sydney; Zahedan University of Medical Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Harvard University; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals; Generalitat de Catalunya; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; Ministry of Education; University of Science and Technology of China; University of Pennsylvania; Guangzhou University; Semnan University; East Carolina University; China Medical University, Taiwan; Cooperativa de Ensino Superior Politécnico e Universitário; Daiichi Sankyo Europe; Fred Hollows Foundation; University of Sydney; Case Western Reserve University; Qatar University; Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia; Asian Institute of Medicine, Science and Technology; Alexion Pharmaceuticals; Hamad Medical Corporation; Brigham and Women's Hospital; Florida International University; Cleveland Clinic Foundation; University of Glasgow; Taipei Medical University; Cleveland Clinic; Nazarbayev University; Wuhan University; Ateneo de Manila University; University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center; Högskolan Dalarna; Rijksuniversiteit Groningen; Alberta Health Services; Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment; Belgian American Educational Foundation; University of Tabriz; European Commission; University of Oklahoma; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; AstraZeneca; University of South Florida; Cilag; Science and Technology Development Fund; Università degli Studi di Firenze; Charles Sturt University; Universidade do Porto; Australian Government; Universiti Sains Malaysia; Curtin University of Technology; Pfizer; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; University of New South Wales; Università ta' Malta; National Heart Foundation of Australia; Comunidad de Madrid; Addis Ababa University; Sultan Qaboos University; Danone; University of Bern","keywords":"Burden of disease; Medicine; Diabetes mellitus; Disease; Disease burden; MEDLINE; Environmental health; Global health; Intensive care medicine; Public health; Internal medicine; Political science; Pathology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.02014428,0.001842152,0.004984885,0.009740942,0.0003683801,0.001640193,0.001218695,0.001260311,0.002119234],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02426439,0.00124959,0.01964914,0.01185468,0.000398485,0.00105122,0.001542854,0.001458952,0.0005949396],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002870248,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.008549118,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05320461,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.07798088,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9930136,0.003705054,0.001109902,0.00078543,0.00118413,0.0002019509],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9909703,0.00398196,0.001623595,0.0004966385,0.002731149,0.0001963549],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"meta_analysis","study_design_gemma":"meta_analysis","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002421737,0.0000737674,0.1408633,0.2272316,0.3152303,0.0005418999,0.000787115,0.02686327,0.0006673019,0.004673802,0.06901376,0.2116321],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002244705,0.0005930423,0.1696429,0.1722069,0.5390978,0.0009930192,0.0007565187,0.0197033,0.0006318142,0.008011287,0.08570198,0.0004167151],"study_design_candidate":"meta_analysis","study_design_consensus":"meta_analysis","genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.02159216,0.8859621,0.01248748,0.004477974,0.0007741955,0.0007749826,0.07204069,0.0003015551,0.001588895],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.2785737,0.6348616,0.03191266,0.002716362,0.0006176491,0.004132541,0.04618504,0.0001391598,0.0008613419],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.05320461,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1065344,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03385608934287562,"score_gpt":0.3044279167200671,"score_spread":0.2705718273771915,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). 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