{"id":"W4382201321","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4493239","title":"Submartingale in Bitcoin Prices","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Brock University","funders":"","keywords":"Cryptocurrency; Economics; Monetary economics; Financial economics; Business; Econometrics; Computer science; Computer security","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001874169,0.000501455,0.001547425,0.001089244,0.001513239,0.004545501,0.001006345,0.002368077,0.02105375],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01629194,0.0006046293,0.0007718984,0.001265299,0.002123354,0.009664034,0.001509056,0.003110728,0.001464158],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001243488,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009076435,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002326985,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002614612,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991704,0.0003211607,0.0000442276,0.0001363849,0.00016289,0.0001648755],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9905634,0.006467589,0.0009816074,0.000591015,0.0005999541,0.000796392],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003652843,0.0001305197,0.001393221,0.000107065,0.00003031531,0.0006355391,0.0002657897,0.023878,0.001331774,0.9562823,0.004851564,0.01072864],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004517025,0.00004250407,0.0009798155,0.00002596017,0.00001763287,0.000234626,0.0001584517,0.1743324,0.0006341786,0.8224314,0.001058494,0.00003933046],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.706372,0.00188268,0.1862694,0.005957827,0.0004399743,0.0001021275,0.0004513006,0.0008234168,0.09770127],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9826163,0.000257716,0.00196255,0.0001034492,0.0001088515,0.00002989434,0.00005120079,0.00006387039,0.01480621],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02105375,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07043183,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01907206248501743,"score_gpt":0.2132433766418272,"score_spread":0.1941713141568098,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}