{"id":"W4383198643","doi":"10.3389/fams.2023.1152476","title":"How many strong earthquakes will there be tomorrow?","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics","topic":"earthquake and tectonic studies","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia","keywords":"Poisson distribution; Negative binomial distribution; Akaike information criterion; Binomial distribution; Count data; Beta-binomial distribution; Statistics; Poisson binomial distribution; Mathematics; Distribution (mathematics); Quasi-likelihood; Moment tensor; Compound Poisson distribution; Poisson regression; Magnitude (astronomy); Physics; Mathematical analysis","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002655102,0.0001855361,0.0003249549,0.0001354871,0.0001588905,0.0001309988,0.0001362588,0.00006975135,0.0001520425],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005757437,0.0001554156,0.0000246222,0.0002655365,0.0001438389,0.00006286091,0.00002573041,0.0001532491,0.00004372904],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000004046879,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002053782,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00003023969,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0005228964,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988722,0.0000120013,0.000219505,0.0002545898,0.0002548365,0.000386871],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993941,0.0002353857,0.00008170447,0.0001876975,0.00001692518,0.00008415105],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003858482,0.00006654207,0.09017557,0.0006243475,0.0001738579,0.0001773825,0.003861557,0.00043703,0.00001475569,0.129558,0.08962422,0.6852481],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001865088,0.000209407,0.1659896,0.0001320401,0.0001285243,0.0000193021,0.03323406,0.4165201,0.00006380229,0.3343394,0.04625631,0.001242387],"study_design_candidate":"design_other","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.1630647,0.003189558,0.7450312,0.001845191,0.001659751,0.001463757,0.002332105,0.000452377,0.08096128],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.4716487,0.001696265,0.5243156,0.00009324434,0.00007249398,0.0000109073,0.0001780271,0.00001673771,0.001968027],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6840057,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6337666,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01871648206608627,"score_gpt":0.2145868767586522,"score_spread":0.1958703946925659,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}