{"id":"W4383961572","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105479","title":"When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Econometrics","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":23,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université du Québec à Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Sea ice; Arctic ice pack; Climatology; Arctic; Environmental science; Ice-albedo feedback; Cryosphere; Arctic sea ice decline; Arctic geoengineering; Global warming; Climate change; The arctic; Drift ice; Atmospheric sciences; Physical geography; Oceanography; Geology; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007385074,0.00009895566,0.0002616469,0.0007190972,0.0001180214,0.00004781119,0.0001773431,0.00005944969,0.0007839233],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0004547575,0.000080112,0.00009681215,0.001052992,0.0001183744,0.0005338853,0.00002289086,0.0002305525,0.00004469861],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001356985,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001002824,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004253495,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001233472,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989836,0.00003643214,0.0004471423,0.0001227347,0.0001972612,0.0002128932],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988261,0.0003588846,0.0004187829,0.0001111264,0.0001456758,0.0001394554],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000019718,0.00002270172,0.9870111,0.00006227002,0.0000518938,0.00001453781,0.0003456082,0.00106579,0.000001412071,0.00006964458,0.0008535023,0.01048179],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003147718,0.0003144126,0.9559116,0.00005142283,0.00007130374,0.0002162812,0.001551747,0.03073243,0.000001214662,0.003873802,0.006827118,0.0001338825],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9937642,0.0005403627,0.001468381,0.00123265,0.0006344003,0.00009596859,0.00007437942,0.00001407355,0.002175613],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9962597,0.001350745,0.001240121,0.0000825307,0.0001288956,2.212284e-7,0.00001565161,0.000004368516,0.0009176988],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03109952,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8583411,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05323468869593159,"score_gpt":0.2219109908093285,"score_spread":0.1686763021133969,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}