{"id":"W4383982245","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023","title":"Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Natural hazards and earth system sciences","topic":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université du Québec à Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Tornado; Storm; Exponential function; Meteorology; Helicity; Probability density function; Expression (computer science); Environmental science; Severe weather; Function (biology); Statistical physics; Mathematics; Computer science; Physics; Statistics; Mathematical analysis","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003584515,0.0008086135,0.0006218241,0.001859209,0.0006806708,0.001936873,0.001370167,0.00172083,0.016185],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02505558,0.000419307,0.0005419819,0.001563776,0.001831164,0.003473055,0.001167816,0.003064346,0.00571547],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001116399,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005420785,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00101521,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008514488,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989988,0.0003428452,0.0001004775,0.0002481905,0.0002458424,0.00006381006],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9933829,0.003961063,0.0004285313,0.0004520333,0.001513904,0.0002615688],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001257073,0.00009253743,0.001839422,0.0006592764,0.00007139917,0.0004717179,0.0004608455,0.01576042,0.003314745,0.6157777,0.2406546,0.1207715],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004155867,0.0001335777,0.002354041,0.0002959658,0.00006512452,0.00122471,0.0001583109,0.1059994,0.003804145,0.504576,0.3811968,0.0001502953],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.00940231,0.0127732,0.8648329,0.03200728,0.04878891,0.0001401833,0.001348872,0.0009578976,0.0297484],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.3732142,0.02850027,0.3666207,0.01766163,0.10453,0.000530005,0.002425997,0.001317409,0.1051998],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.016185,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05414426,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0395549563868597,"score_gpt":0.2594053695245396,"score_spread":0.2198504131376799,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}