{"id":"W4384160430","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4509559","title":"Overwintering Spruce Budworm Population Density as Predictor of Following-Year Larval Density and Defoliation on Balsam Fir","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Forest Insect Ecology and Management","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Government of Canada; Canadian Forest Service; Natural Resources Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Balsam; Spruce budworm; Overwintering; Biology; Larva; Population density; Population; Forestry; Toxicology; Botany; Demography; Geography; Tortricidae","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004341301,0.0002522247,0.0001933027,0.0003004668,0.0002316332,0.0003238718,0.0002227198,0.0002735294,0.00208771],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0004995101,0.0001202646,0.0002740698,0.0001694124,0.0001810103,0.0002115531,0.0001762327,0.0002316553,0.0003989866],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003300105,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002860735,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03673796,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06843314,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999214,0.00002233052,0.000003969293,0.0000227708,0.000008741423,0.0000208459],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994413,0.0002258315,0.00008059737,0.00002572619,0.00005976445,0.0001667751],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00024627,0.00009950076,0.9957691,0.000006150662,0.00003900309,0.00007266134,0.00008781221,0.0003809623,0.001807677,0.00001861661,0.0001137099,0.001358399],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002056886,0.00003527973,0.9993662,0.000001200897,0.000008228172,0.00001625964,0.00006351273,0.0003864355,0.00008508714,0.000004779749,0.00003016991,8.023877e-7],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.999824,0.00001676034,0.00001170788,0.000004670435,9.902575e-7,3.605666e-7,0.00006825889,0.000001238834,0.00007214328],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992197,0.00002191501,0.00002337069,0.000004052987,0.000002186984,7.446425e-7,0.0002718026,9.831923e-7,0.0004553011],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03673796,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07304829,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.008119451238821102,"score_gpt":0.2329265743342671,"score_spread":0.224807123095446,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}