{"id":"W4385308087","doi":"10.3390/economies11080201","title":"Evaluating the Hierarchical Contagion of Economic Policy Uncertainty among the Leading Developed and Developing Economies","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economies","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; China; Volatility (finance); Economics; Political science; Economy; Development economics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003163413,0.0002288208,0.0005587226,0.0002768993,0.0004741318,0.0001841987,0.0004384846,0.0001037213,0.0001187779],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0004814836,0.0001827039,0.0001314369,0.000201528,0.0004856645,0.000287062,0.0003211963,0.0002233453,0.0001457261],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000301368,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001840432,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001208172,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001487152,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979538,0.00008068728,0.001031399,0.0004861213,0.0000272368,0.0004207071],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9978459,0.001035452,0.0005764957,0.0004546066,0.00002537386,0.00006216546],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004609584,0.000006894303,0.4310043,0.00005235777,0.0001531583,4.865049e-7,0.00186604,0.002254843,0.000007520386,0.556523,0.0004599174,0.007625437],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004916428,0.00005489313,0.4379491,0.00002678126,0.000009393761,0.000003804741,0.0005376352,0.3667523,0.0000258908,0.1844323,0.009380413,0.0003358114],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9817333,0.0003244979,0.000156869,0.00632583,0.0003489184,0.0003743584,0.00009465917,0.00004945305,0.01059217],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9968597,0.000615378,0.0003066681,0.000242788,0.0001829506,0.00007266231,0.0000198525,0.00002805326,0.001671908],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3720907,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7450449,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08135888844991565,"score_gpt":0.3240550998250496,"score_spread":0.2426962113751339,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}