{"id":"W4385314970","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4521124","title":"Understanding Rationality and Disagreement in House Price Expectations","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Housing Market and Economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Rationality; Rational expectations; House price; Econometrics; Price dispersion; Dispersion (optics); Term (time)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009929089,0.0002894458,0.000834928,0.0007128148,0.0007854896,0.004777197,0.001133315,0.002808143,0.004943999],"category_scores_gemma":[0.06933266,0.0006748324,0.0005563622,0.0006354601,0.003836084,0.006472756,0.002003154,0.003189142,0.0004330196],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001542073,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009647567,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006120335,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002471305,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9968941,0.001722428,0.0001674905,0.0004338869,0.0003987515,0.0003833834],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9300911,0.05855642,0.005773772,0.0026737,0.001934425,0.0009706315],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001017083,0.0003237021,0.05884311,0.0001147418,0.0001874105,0.000776892,0.009302326,0.03874111,0.001416113,0.8635165,0.00284319,0.0229178],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008336877,0.00004964513,0.01365224,0.00001710255,0.00002675453,0.00006358338,0.002291664,0.07208572,0.0003120958,0.9106007,0.0007821483,0.00003496484],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9318683,0.0003076891,0.03296781,0.008531142,0.00004332833,0.00002754938,0.0001485097,0.00004611423,0.02605951],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9983966,0.00004475259,0.000908111,0.00009241454,0.00002350937,0.00000836917,0.00003209513,0.0000071965,0.0004869288],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.009929089,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05251068,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07779832654506977,"score_gpt":0.2445667215155262,"score_spread":0.1667683949704564,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}