{"id":"W4385339962","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4522042","title":"Do Polls Influence The Vote?","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo; Université de Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Political science; Econometrics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006159334,0.0002502006,0.0008462314,0.002161779,0.001710972,0.005401262,0.0006414583,0.002141965,0.03178602],"category_scores_gemma":[0.04128832,0.0004829706,0.0004882719,0.00229253,0.001610971,0.002185134,0.001559819,0.001514856,0.006782228],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006181502,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009589786,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00480657,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.008656531,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9932012,0.003901377,0.000216327,0.0005809309,0.0006433666,0.001456868],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9626904,0.02299391,0.007424189,0.001476502,0.002216898,0.003198175],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002981896,0.00165913,0.8196936,0.0003876881,0.0007420424,0.0003799496,0.009083261,0.00105572,0.001767156,0.03640958,0.02329768,0.1025422],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003063569,0.0005101555,0.9359152,0.000104422,0.0002417612,0.0001157985,0.009708158,0.001846962,0.000814067,0.02060247,0.02978454,0.00005016362],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8727962,0.0007659023,0.001046841,0.0120593,0.0003727069,0.00006312864,0.0006529877,0.00005763429,0.1121854],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9942022,0.000138255,0.00007582744,0.0004716775,0.0002029137,0.00001472373,0.0001326267,0.00002834654,0.004733346],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03178602,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1063349,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02581593041034821,"score_gpt":0.3492018296219382,"score_spread":0.3233858992115901,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}