{"id":"W4385614455","doi":"10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111594","title":"Epidemic dynamics with time-varying transmission risk reveal the role of disease stage-dependent infectiousness","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Transmission (telecommunications); Basic reproduction number; Spurious relationship; Statistics; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Epidemic model; Disease transmission; Econometrics; Biology; Disease; Demography; Computer science; Mathematics; Medicine; Virology; Population; Environmental health; Internal medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001273314,0.0005776767,0.0007089843,0.0006069512,0.0003773263,0.001490025,0.0009470599,0.001318908,0.002001475],"category_scores_gemma":[0.008336922,0.0003993229,0.0009948915,0.0004915801,0.0008081618,0.002358611,0.001068289,0.001653393,0.0003192346],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007572161,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007279654,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006061298,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002444274,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994794,0.0002093006,0.00002437399,0.0001335062,0.0000692241,0.00008419734],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9972445,0.001553872,0.000662134,0.0002467695,0.0001634207,0.0001292751],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001330258,0.0001363382,0.03336566,0.0001696326,0.0002096517,0.0007623149,0.0007474881,0.7665156,0.00856901,0.1674296,0.001841164,0.02012053],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001102493,0.00004151812,0.00612303,0.00002335655,0.00003660566,0.0002048022,0.00008905205,0.9487846,0.0003390645,0.04329081,0.001024871,0.00003125317],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6201532,0.001350086,0.3671572,0.002293946,0.0001089854,0.00006381849,0.0004760882,0.0001992719,0.008197424],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9888929,0.0005759837,0.008303644,0.0001156008,0.00004964755,0.00002402656,0.0001067679,0.00003142375,0.001900055],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006061298,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.012052,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03506657271606885,"score_gpt":0.3539833145578512,"score_spread":0.3189167418417824,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}