{"id":"W4385688001","doi":"10.1017/9781316459768.004","title":"The Forecast Factory","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"Cambridge University Press eBooks","topic":"Science and Climate Studies","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Weather prediction; Von Neumann architecture; Meteorology; Climatology; Weather forecasting; Downscaling; Work (physics); Energy balance; Climate change; Environmental science; History; Geography; Computer science; Geology; Engineering; Physics; Precipitation; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001315448,0.0002202935,0.0001670357,0.00002916821,0.0008178533,0.00004587686,0.0006978885,0.000126999,0.00002615912],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000009954627,0.0001758334,0.0001449946,0.00001104637,0.0009814375,0.00007451481,0.001073102,0.0002403105,0.0006804456],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001995258,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001567299,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001829939,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00005748541,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988061,0.0000144156,0.0001054747,0.0003838899,0.0003671209,0.0003230287],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992588,0.0001130696,0.0001092074,0.0004100079,0.00001409823,0.00009486306],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003316693,0.000004053975,0.00007959239,0.0000126133,0.00008120723,0.0001646313,0.0001531796,0.000009447338,0.00003873215,0.570616,0.420287,0.008520387],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009449363,0.00002218167,0.0004713019,0.00002073177,0.00004401137,0.00000249541,0.0001752924,0.00002309005,0.00003437712,0.00003624869,0.9988513,0.0002244597],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.000297993,0.00003188984,0.00001038974,0.0000388837,0.000342269,0.0001990687,0.00007657935,0.0001154871,0.9988874],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.0008698702,0.0004159117,0.000005736627,0.00004456297,0.00004675707,7.139161e-7,0.000005786319,0.00002363732,0.998587],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":"other","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5785643,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8745978,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03683043626685505,"score_gpt":0.1993907649740861,"score_spread":0.1625603287072311,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}