{"id":"W4385688001","doi":"10.1017/9781316459768.004","title":"The Forecast Factory","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"Cambridge University Press eBooks","topic":"Science and Climate Studies","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Weather prediction; Von Neumann architecture; Meteorology; Climatology; Weather forecasting; Downscaling; Work (physics); Energy balance; Climate change; Environmental science; History; Geography; Computer science; Geology; Engineering; Physics; Precipitation; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":["sts","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001609621,0.001037095,0.0006208228,0.0025163,0.001539458,0.007254094,0.001628481,0.002440042,0.3628279],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005851666,0.0008160874,0.0006495856,0.003198379,0.0007726118,0.0108278,0.00234158,0.003364346,0.2954619],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001891397,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002135559,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006986605,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007001494,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992792,0.00009948773,0.0000457204,0.0001593654,0.0003507423,0.00006550676],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.99787,0.0005136257,0.0000790403,0.0006131984,0.000657826,0.0002664256],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001737054,0.000008051526,0.00007292385,0.00005033562,0.000003114108,0.00003294543,0.0001042774,0.0002505848,0.0002262895,0.06468902,0.8238979,0.1106471],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000001695089,0.000001060222,0.00003623426,0.00002385647,7.83687e-7,0.0000226823,0.0000146867,0.0001435322,0.00006426809,0.005240357,0.9944465,0.000004211841],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.0005258727,0.005420372,0.03978102,0.0152031,0.006386771,0.0000654477,0.007224871,0.01744351,0.907949],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.006414679,0.006080954,0.02012084,0.002897005,0.002016899,0.0000858823,0.006754842,0.005596527,0.9500325],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9984605,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9088487,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03683043626685505,"score_gpt":0.1993907649740861,"score_spread":0.1625603287072311,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}