{"id":"W4385697574","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad025","title":"Do Anomalies Really Predict Market Returns? New Data and New Evidence","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"European Finance Review","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":34,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Concordia University","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Anomaly (physics); Economics; Risk premium; Equity (law); Econometrics; Financial economics; Aggregate (composite); Equity premium puzzle; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006435791,0.0005215776,0.000858667,0.004154517,0.000278435,0.002690843,0.0008624098,0.0008367869,0.003119876],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03775996,0.0002151108,0.0006942158,0.004693052,0.001314227,0.003613048,0.001455291,0.002451738,0.0007741046],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005010947,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004831209,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004722751,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003681065,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974229,0.0009448783,0.0002980817,0.0004099026,0.0007947868,0.0001295094],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9257669,0.05122437,0.01137434,0.005030029,0.005858466,0.0007458482],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000363885,0.0002119875,0.833763,0.0008460544,0.00177994,0.0006372017,0.0007410441,0.01495903,0.0007540423,0.02139658,0.01685594,0.1076913],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001361931,0.0003040098,0.7896355,0.00156601,0.001227022,0.0005413466,0.00241583,0.06091499,0.002286604,0.07525757,0.0655219,0.0001931313],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9100853,0.02975532,0.0206376,0.01533092,0.0006048069,0.00006081479,0.008420255,0.0001654701,0.01493955],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9866949,0.006049696,0.002025467,0.0006810154,0.0005603622,0.00001635079,0.003440271,0.00004499506,0.0004869426],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006435791,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03403616,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1678194599064008,"score_gpt":0.2846780217117768,"score_spread":0.1168585618053759,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}