{"id":"W4385963353","doi":"10.31235/osf.io/m2cet","title":"To change or not to change The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Economic, financial, and policy analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université de Sherbrooke","funders":"Economic and Social Research Council","keywords":"Agency (philosophy); Institution; Diversity (politics); Institutional change; Persistence (discontinuity); Economics; Computer science; Political science; Sociology; Public administration; Social science; Engineering; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0214263,0.0002567243,0.0004711719,0.000846531,0.002571685,0.007531877,0.001542622,0.002410803,0.005597559],"category_scores_gemma":[0.07468498,0.000643329,0.0004569802,0.001394312,0.003876593,0.009015195,0.002522685,0.003858753,0.001177982],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.01039986,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.007887972,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04052106,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04372973,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9833725,0.01167045,0.0006536927,0.001264285,0.002103102,0.0009359948],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9577119,0.02871795,0.003462227,0.00518844,0.003664617,0.001254863],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005306036,0.0002857826,0.05597318,0.0005353423,0.0001341405,0.001187662,0.07666887,0.07120822,0.002415938,0.5434128,0.04031628,0.2073311],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000142681,0.0002409175,0.02853686,0.001716003,0.0001323114,0.0006021191,0.03755923,0.1064394,0.007807249,0.258924,0.557433,0.0004662537],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6553373,0.005911947,0.08454498,0.1481719,0.0009125607,0.0001146023,0.0006604755,0.0005667696,0.1037794],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9709938,0.001647607,0.01545708,0.0009592489,0.00007798775,0.00004080065,0.0001656363,0.0001547947,0.01050289],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04052106,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1133144,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.295443450263965,"score_gpt":0.28907872321584,"score_spread":0.006364727048124907,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}