{"id":"W4385981681","doi":"10.20944/preprints202308.1249.v1","title":"Testing the Emissions Reduction Effect of Carbon Pricing: A Predictive Analysis of the Role of Speculation","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Preprints.org","topic":"Climate Change Policy and Economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"SAIT Polytechnic","funders":"","keywords":"Speculation; Economics; Econometrics; Predictive power; Market liquidity; Predictability; Climate change; Robustness (evolution); Sample (material); Monetary economics; Finance; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007973555,0.0005832576,0.0005888307,0.0006127497,0.0003794312,0.001373602,0.000936508,0.0009470288,0.002862247],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03886908,0.0002215509,0.001072984,0.0006669997,0.001317508,0.001502394,0.0009104759,0.001862703,0.0001805914],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007400675,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000992684,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01489647,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006300312,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987061,0.0007879748,0.00005655365,0.0001831248,0.0001618434,0.0001044845],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9220193,0.07088178,0.003818528,0.001781802,0.001120476,0.0003781825],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001281272,0.0006672389,0.2080393,0.0001792774,0.0004923253,0.0004911037,0.0004839311,0.718933,0.002980039,0.02968187,0.001672406,0.03509825],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002590107,0.0001573676,0.01661273,0.000009972401,0.0000672551,0.00001546231,0.00007128439,0.9756896,0.001154436,0.006017329,0.0001659184,0.0000126027],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9757378,0.0001458471,0.02098292,0.000819083,0.00003982604,0.00003532823,0.0002278187,0.00008625031,0.001925164],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.997359,0.00006769325,0.00195516,0.00003949853,0.0000308942,0.0000106266,0.0001833425,0.000007398023,0.0003463894],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01489647,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04216868,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2255272392137236,"score_gpt":0.3254018043704656,"score_spread":0.099874565156742,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}