{"id":"W4386308208","doi":"10.1017/spq.2023.11","title":"Dynamics of Gubernatorial Approval: Evidence from a New Database","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"State Politics & Policy Quarterly","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Honeymoon; Governor; Unemployment; State (computer science); Accountability; Representation (politics); Quarter (Canadian coin); Public administration; Political science; Survey data collection; Actuarial science; Database; Economics; Demographic economics; Law; Politics; Computer science; Economic growth; Statistics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005247269,0.0001644012,0.0002847148,0.0001999152,0.0002046982,0.0001003858,0.0003616479,0.0001057201,0.00005374787],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0007504807,0.0001697221,0.0001025566,0.0007881383,0.0002656307,0.0003548118,0.00003172702,0.0001489216,0.0002960366],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000329015,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001254878,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.7673215,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0527749,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9972733,0.0003263986,0.0005275221,0.0002844603,0.0006455537,0.0009428008],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9980215,0.0006630929,0.0001767767,0.0003881554,0.0001668065,0.0005836169],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002694736,0.00004355982,0.005661965,0.00005033516,0.00004711191,0.000008878881,0.04143585,0.00001148468,0.000584037,0.9424185,0.00632332,0.003388018],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006032619,0.0004150695,0.008930896,0.0002243578,0.00005971371,5.755591e-7,0.002809121,0.002014732,0.0004456203,0.9759194,0.008125364,0.0004518738],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9791629,0.00004063569,0.0009261082,0.01536019,0.0009529447,0.0003632291,0.0008819957,0.0002346738,0.002077298],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9923391,0.00001919802,0.0001839226,0.0001242814,0.00307694,0.00001455486,0.0001131689,0.00002656901,0.004102216],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7145466,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9645095,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06767890095729943,"score_gpt":0.3985266636863819,"score_spread":0.3308477627290825,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}