{"id":"W4386368771","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4558108","title":"Forecasted Treatment Effects","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Advanced Causal Inference Techniques","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"Economic and Social Research Council","keywords":"Environmental science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009059171,0.00112669,0.002976469,0.001764575,0.0004591133,0.002536116,0.002112605,0.003658421,0.03650907],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05476057,0.001100682,0.002301223,0.00150427,0.000890223,0.003401825,0.0008895624,0.006107667,0.006699936],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001943188,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002635658,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006683246,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007067683,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9966815,0.001399381,0.0001193526,0.001117547,0.0003999244,0.0002821471],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9677191,0.02658832,0.001252095,0.003018378,0.00102773,0.0003942963],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002636984,0.0006652056,0.01626,0.0007224124,0.0008545585,0.0003904946,0.000455005,0.4047977,0.001114904,0.3045121,0.05410589,0.2134848],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004962657,0.0003243175,0.005882371,0.0002492512,0.0005767486,0.0001812347,0.0001160756,0.5321989,0.001083717,0.4468975,0.01191448,0.00007911096],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.08401762,0.004028882,0.8253343,0.01648497,0.003482538,0.001226229,0.03226589,0.003038338,0.0301212],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8508063,0.002523612,0.08925999,0.00199275,0.001262407,0.00128101,0.008150756,0.000197042,0.04452604],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03650907,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.122135,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1231613975393412,"score_gpt":0.4023305954514776,"score_spread":0.2791691979121364,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}