{"id":"W4386655763","doi":"10.48550/arxiv.2309.05639","title":"Forecasted Treatment Effects","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"arXiv (Cornell University)","topic":"Advanced Causal Inference Techniques","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; Canada Research Chairs; McMaster University","keywords":"Environmental science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.02356544,0.001020196,0.002372613,0.002037853,0.0005613505,0.002293276,0.003019957,0.00366957,0.009139523],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1107207,0.0006685797,0.001647711,0.001862419,0.001802446,0.003802045,0.001208898,0.003786824,0.001020326],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002030534,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002172037,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003741045,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002173372,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9912447,0.005122849,0.0003068146,0.001810733,0.001093022,0.0004218818],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9409402,0.04816202,0.004115511,0.004971213,0.001453906,0.0003571853],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004212481,0.0002835824,0.01082006,0.0005765965,0.0005229975,0.0002014688,0.0004017586,0.194745,0.001025528,0.6348112,0.00457915,0.1516114],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001397528,0.0002172997,0.002984217,0.000218934,0.000339775,0.00007419142,0.0001004428,0.3032007,0.001788529,0.6836543,0.00721305,0.00006888322],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.0287029,0.001319668,0.9591565,0.002905524,0.0004718522,0.00034612,0.001590768,0.000311734,0.005194968],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.6857721,0.002904521,0.2971119,0.00120271,0.0008331046,0.00147178,0.001755308,0.0001204175,0.008828105],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02356544,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1246275,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4358995198111058,"score_gpt":0.3097370982529697,"score_spread":0.126162421558136,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}