{"id":"W4386956826","doi":"10.1016/j.annepidem.2023.09.005","title":"Impact of subgroup-specific heterogeneities and dynamic changes in mortality rates on forecasted population size, deaths, and age distribution of persons receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States: a computer simulation study","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Annals of Epidemiology","topic":"HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions","field":"Medicine","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary","funders":"Janssen Pharmaceuticals; National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities; National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences; National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases; National Center for Research Resources; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders; National Institute on Drug Abuse; National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism; National Eye Institute; National Institute on Aging; Gilead Sciences; National Cancer Institute; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; National Human Genome Research Institute; Health Resources and Services Administration; National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; National Institute of Mental Health; National Institute of Nursing Research; Massachusetts General Hospital; Government of Alberta; Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality; National Institutes of Health; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; Pfizer","keywords":"Medicine; Demography; Ethnic group; Mortality rate; Population; Subgroup analysis; Epidemiology; Gerontology; Environmental health; Meta-analysis; Internal medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001621263,0.0001020715,0.0004821263,0.0003190796,0.0000272681,0.000003110484,0.00003520365,0.00005510302,0.000004557546],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008571593,0.00006674608,0.0000824499,0.000346838,0.0001158756,0.00004369991,0.00002073296,0.00007866036,1.703834e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004166748,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000008879188,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.008622483,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003797247,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998022,0.001058736,0.0004590487,0.000167209,0.00008290343,0.0002101497],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9974947,0.002081478,0.0001749989,0.0001442508,0.00006751192,0.00003706264],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003314076,0.0004039194,0.9885385,0.00006551948,0.0001030475,0.000009293683,0.002041345,0.003035302,0.0001728618,0.00002136805,0.00005224471,0.005225166],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006918156,0.01139551,0.8518337,0.000131982,0.00001428858,0.000001241956,0.001031501,0.1347046,0.00002369775,0.0001342209,0.000003105508,0.00003434892],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9985844,0.0002067104,0.00008915226,0.0002771218,0.000006794588,0.000570423,0.0002565975,0.000006463734,0.000002320337],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.997458,0.00104979,0.00001276223,0.00001580856,0.00000856576,0.00001998187,0.001419188,0.000005173054,0.00001075829],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1367048,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9979792,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2339494363414612,"score_gpt":0.4847408119383084,"score_spread":0.2507913755968472,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}