{"id":"W4387259187","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13282","title":"Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Journal of Finance","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":20,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"Leibniz-Gemeinschaft","keywords":"Maturity (psychological); Government debt; Economics; Inflation (cosmology); Risk premium; Monetary economics; Portfolio; Fiscal policy; Debt; Monetary policy; Government (linguistics); Macroeconomics; Financial economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004002125,0.00009896431,0.0003231908,0.00006230853,0.0001829766,0.00006080455,0.0004094091,0.00004198985,0.0000478143],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001265548,0.0000562953,0.0001014232,0.0001308375,0.0003105091,0.0001870761,0.0001103821,0.0002410641,0.0001124171],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002492799,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001492896,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00003278084,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000009548853,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991012,0.00005812326,0.0005178706,0.00009796831,0.00002837547,0.0001964831],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987312,0.0004533716,0.0005165151,0.0002517133,0.00001940553,0.00002781703],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002221364,0.000008470849,0.0005531468,0.000006846725,0.00003465215,0.000003201959,0.001212547,0.0003147606,0.000003384243,0.9928235,0.003791126,0.001026258],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009544175,0.00004068835,0.01196429,0.00002257185,0.00001249612,0.00007294702,0.0002737178,0.001576655,0.00003203519,0.9494827,0.03546983,0.00009760401],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9603741,0.01532646,0.002094187,0.0129656,0.0008007165,0.0001507314,0.00005421609,0.00001226742,0.008221745],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9864928,0.009799248,0.00006223148,0.0004322689,0.0001977052,0.000003099059,6.347819e-7,0.00001332124,0.002998658],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04334073,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2295655,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01888211407943278,"score_gpt":0.2192504028522657,"score_spread":0.2003682887728329,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}