{"id":"W4387394822","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2023.102172","title":"Technical trading rules, loss avoidance, and the business cycle","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand","keywords":"Trading strategy; Equity (law); Recession; Pairs trade; Investment strategy; Business cycle; Economics; Technical analysis; Monetary economics; Business; Trend following; Sample (material); Investment (military); Econometrics; Financial economics; Alternative trading system; Algorithmic trading; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001909798,0.0002394666,0.0005541691,0.0002534226,0.0007387896,0.0004098651,0.0003586504,0.000131708,0.00008340532],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0003417645,0.0001923213,0.0001525947,0.0008331876,0.0005695398,0.0004985285,0.00007772498,0.0005125682,0.0002807355],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007859797,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005685632,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00004830756,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000006281445,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998157,0.00004807266,0.0007731554,0.0003790745,0.00009405215,0.0005486169],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998909,0.0001670757,0.0004789338,0.0003076737,0.00005889399,0.00007844267],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001682909,0.00006149574,0.01576698,0.0000479671,0.0000253644,0.00007536159,0.0004044203,0.00008533574,0.0000265488,0.9542364,0.02443233,0.004669459],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001944505,0.00005406264,0.3397961,0.0001192581,0.00001073062,0.0002909502,0.0002199654,0.002369586,0.00001862803,0.4321393,0.2226302,0.0004067218],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7910561,0.01122707,0.003478885,0.01747375,0.002630696,0.0005581498,0.0001973518,0.0002272205,0.1731508],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9830309,0.01386877,0.0008183303,0.0002392527,0.0004373701,0.00003491868,0.000006555755,0.00003676256,0.001527142],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5220972,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7842637,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02113144996845399,"score_gpt":0.2095334933993531,"score_spread":0.1884020434308991,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}