{"id":"W4387568091","doi":"10.1086/726934","title":"How Do We Know What We Know? Learning from Monte Carlo Simulations","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Journal of Politics","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University; University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Politics; Library science; Political science; Computer science; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007762117,0.00008759199,0.0001826404,0.00008296735,0.0005785321,0.0003396724,0.0002242293,0.00008522812,0.0000603847],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006937588,0.00006167567,0.00009602487,0.0003134581,0.0001484042,0.0004995782,0.00002916466,0.0003177971,0.00005678033],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001384566,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001643549,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003697144,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001510295,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9980511,0.0006656034,0.0003021446,0.00006286959,0.0004782387,0.0004400661],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9979451,0.001211808,0.000231521,0.0001138465,0.0002717952,0.0002259529],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008218762,0.0002564139,0.03796103,0.0001234004,0.0006190899,0.0000721378,0.2808183,0.08367691,0.004129922,0.4968533,0.03432155,0.06108576],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004150406,0.000203964,0.003589226,0.0007611391,0.0002138328,0.000004238078,0.04240051,0.006909702,0.0003121996,0.08578446,0.8591457,0.0002599737],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9027585,0.008609975,0.0001589122,0.08672806,0.001088305,0.0001330412,0.00001316137,0.00005194684,0.0004580593],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9857858,0.004269979,0.00001804126,0.00007035292,0.002032261,7.895564e-7,0.000001002793,0.00001255724,0.007809183],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8248242,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5589001,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07808054829798418,"score_gpt":0.3645132359924697,"score_spread":0.2864326876944855,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}