{"id":"W4387587890","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4599936","title":"Unobserved Components Model(s): Output Gaps and Financial Cycles","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"European Monetary and Fiscal Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université Laval","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Econometrics; Business","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00389955,0.001464915,0.002433434,0.001140906,0.0007563218,0.004052065,0.002607234,0.004758846,0.01654808],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01461329,0.0009683006,0.001423427,0.002466883,0.001780588,0.003099516,0.001663021,0.003459791,0.001931577],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001341522,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002578734,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02584261,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01460011,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988319,0.0005098336,0.00006362653,0.0003110083,0.00008063354,0.0002030465],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9894255,0.007685448,0.001483561,0.0005064111,0.0004954034,0.0004035966],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001234726,0.0003797766,0.04137998,0.0005404675,0.000553689,0.000758999,0.0008741249,0.3674291,0.0007001985,0.5262454,0.02194186,0.03796158],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003329048,0.0001477599,0.009659231,0.0001257822,0.0003399924,0.000169684,0.0002572034,0.7240605,0.000291325,0.2597089,0.004828176,0.00007856183],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5489779,0.00491903,0.3868974,0.02777466,0.0009116802,0.0002640287,0.01131624,0.00137076,0.01756827],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9510504,0.001908431,0.007727641,0.0004241475,0.0005623049,0.0001665564,0.002710214,0.0001080541,0.0353422],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02584261,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05535883,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04398219168061573,"score_gpt":0.2129291033137564,"score_spread":0.1689469116331407,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}