{"id":"W4388193839","doi":"10.1093/biosci/biad083","title":"Prediction in ecology and evolution","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"BioScience","topic":"Species Distribution and Climate Change","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":15,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Diversity (politics); Epistemology; Range (aeronautics); Sine qua non; Focus (optics); Ecology; Outcome (game theory); Computer science; Cognitive psychology; Psychology; Sociology; Mathematics; Mathematical economics; Biology; Philosophy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001685251,0.00002910599,0.00002805816,0.00003336608,0.00006327043,0.000009463267,0.00005908905,0.00002464983,0.003036649],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004112607,0.00002710796,0.00000540687,0.0005822974,0.0001771889,0.0001054631,0.00008637874,0.00002370657,0.001171221],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00021469,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000003154759,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00008721645,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004010462,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999554,0.0000111057,0.0000535242,0.0001472146,0.00009331403,0.000140892],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9998921,0.00001037279,0.0000118497,0.00005167426,0.000001482835,0.00003251093],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000001251632,0.00001016329,0.9749666,8.848518e-7,8.561524e-8,0.00000152707,0.00005678996,0.00001167287,0.02011948,0.0009913053,0.003430658,0.0004095057],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00006838893,0.00001935221,0.9944744,9.904354e-7,3.328602e-7,0.00000232849,0.0002874562,0.001356416,0.0001572393,0.0001879858,0.003416809,0.00002828121],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9897714,0.000004875701,0.00001514805,0.0004593938,0.0001366746,0.00004971127,0.00001095349,0.00004800831,0.009503789],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9993908,0.00002527882,0.000008107404,0.00006984056,0.000004850473,0.000007756064,0.000004320647,0.000001059154,0.000488024],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01996225,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996065,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0309066414634915,"score_gpt":0.2386305790051381,"score_spread":0.2077239375416466,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}