{"id":"W4388225335","doi":"10.1057/s41278-023-00274-w","title":"Navigating the tides of uncertainty: exploring the complex relationship between global economic policy and crude oil transportation","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Maritime Economics & Logistics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Geopolitics; Causality (physics); Government (linguistics); Crude oil; Index (typography); Politics; Business; Natural resource economics; Economics; Economic impact analysis; Political science; Engineering; Microeconomics; Petroleum engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001362185,0.0001946963,0.0004176896,0.00006033864,0.0003588661,0.0001316574,0.0003614223,0.00009529154,0.00004387849],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0004758867,0.0001831557,0.0001203903,0.0002351281,0.0003405455,0.0001669128,0.00008732642,0.0002895948,0.00004871975],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002813475,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00006830896,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004240559,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001649513,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982289,0.0000438411,0.0009907453,0.0003724963,0.00002716218,0.0003368375],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9975806,0.001383671,0.0004950635,0.0004411976,0.00002629234,0.00007319115],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000007309895,0.000005618382,0.5890808,0.0000336802,0.00003450348,3.496129e-7,0.0002084327,0.003980251,2.150546e-7,0.4024994,0.00006153293,0.004087827],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001888598,0.00001582998,0.6772538,0.00001268842,0.00001389155,8.939745e-7,0.0001226961,0.09904014,5.616912e-7,0.2205468,0.002654707,0.0001491109],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9866009,0.0001030678,0.0008320999,0.003264451,0.0002380811,0.0001521411,0.003326272,0.00005144644,0.005431537],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9984428,0.000376965,0.0002742545,0.0001092043,0.0002719187,0.00003456843,0.0003498041,0.00002388395,0.0001166441],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1819527,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7468871,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1315464385729798,"score_gpt":0.300046793682515,"score_spread":0.1685003551095352,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}