{"id":"W4388535684","doi":"10.3982/te4943","title":"Surprise and default in general equilibrium","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Theoretical Economics","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Asset (computer security); Incomplete markets; Welfare; General equilibrium theory; Complete market; Microeconomics; Arbitrage; Surprise; Aggregate (composite); Default risk; Systematic risk; Monetary economics; Financial economics; Actuarial science; Credit risk; Market economy; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001978146,0.0007518274,0.001752949,0.0009223981,0.001181128,0.002496975,0.001598667,0.003318942,0.009205598],"category_scores_gemma":[0.009594198,0.0004814241,0.001204106,0.0008177762,0.002437106,0.003898065,0.002204417,0.0022179,0.0008286219],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002690953,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00149596,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005267724,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003764494,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991329,0.000333653,0.00003608129,0.0001403107,0.0001320903,0.0002249095],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9965259,0.001991874,0.0006319348,0.000231379,0.0002803844,0.0003383888],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000636266,0.00005859378,0.0008392632,0.00006434998,0.00003990067,0.0002446841,0.0001198482,0.05681353,0.0002875318,0.9343727,0.004008988,0.003087035],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004514629,0.00002087678,0.0002513919,0.00001243892,0.000009902552,0.00004915131,0.00003969575,0.1724799,0.00003059165,0.8258802,0.001163726,0.00001698714],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3932834,0.003944133,0.4126394,0.02711285,0.00068424,0.0001533447,0.001440431,0.001013543,0.1597286],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9766709,0.001028786,0.008194774,0.0006708959,0.0002239131,0.0001132245,0.0001906314,0.0000656016,0.01284132],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.009205598,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03079581,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01966856884268396,"score_gpt":0.2130039264780841,"score_spread":0.1933353576354002,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}