{"id":"W4388647962","doi":"10.3386/w31857","title":"Forecasting the Impact of Racial Uprisings, Market versus Stakeholders' Expectations","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Economic, financial, and policy analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Hatch (Canada)","funders":"National Science Foundation","keywords":"Business; Economics; Financial economics; Econometrics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004460187,0.0002486847,0.0001922282,0.0007386928,0.0004152696,0.00151109,0.0002835942,0.0008046849,0.004138187],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02556721,0.0001831583,0.0003553114,0.0004885596,0.0003260526,0.001812347,0.000707138,0.0009615642,0.0007349009],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001208466,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005498179,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01075158,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01718293,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998871,0.0004482362,0.00005856567,0.0001390084,0.000262688,0.0002204738],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9756174,0.01699867,0.004354471,0.0005497021,0.001441331,0.00103843],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005666456,0.0006105743,0.9676274,0.00003033355,0.00004263701,0.0001429647,0.001429059,0.008420496,0.001216874,0.001857142,0.001195191,0.01686079],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002909605,0.0006177027,0.9155714,0.00002031135,0.00003559101,0.00003068575,0.006451544,0.07198815,0.001326696,0.002478377,0.001425608,0.00002481094],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.995735,0.00001992974,0.0003440077,0.0002526614,0.000003762091,0.00002959885,0.0002822539,0.000004552474,0.003328101],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9990269,0.00001739316,0.0002322986,0.00002624929,0.00000539129,0.00002774308,0.0002189487,0.000001261269,0.0004438563],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01075158,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.023588,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.773808949246467,"score_gpt":0.5419621659767624,"score_spread":0.2318467832697046,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}